There’s no live LB for the Forecast Stage since the full ground truth will be released next month. However, we can peek and guess the LB based on the latest condition up until now with quite good confidence (expected 5% error). Here is the “unofficial” LB based on MAE only (volume_50) using the data from this page.
Take this with a grain of salt as it’s only based on MAE and the latest condition until June 2024. I expect that the top ranking will be around 60-ish and it’s still possible to have a 50-ish score for this water year season.
Hello @rasyidstat
Thank you for sharing this! I tried to calculate a similar leaderboard table based on NRCS benchmark data and got slightly different results. But seems the benchmark data is too outdated and not so suitable to use as approximated GT. What values do you use as GT for comparison here?
Hi @RomanChernenko
I mainly used the RFC benchmark since the forecast has been updated up until today. For example: https://www.nwrfc.noaa.gov/water_supply/ws_forecasts.php?id=HHWM8
For some locations, I used various assumptions for the ground truth such as my latest forecast, latest median forecast of all participants, etc.
Again, take this with a grain of salt. There are only 26 ground truths and some adjustments/revisions of natural water supply volume in locations with high volume can change the result significantly.
