Dear Organizers,
The problem requirement asks to issue forecast in this way, “In this challenge, you will issue forecasts on the 1st, 8th, 15th, and 22nd of each month from January through July.”
First, please confirm if you ask for “weekly forecasts” because most data come in at monthly intervals.
Second, the target is total volume from April – July. So why the forecast does not stop at the end of March. If we continue into April, there’ll be data leakage, right?
Thank you.
Hi @dialuser88. This challenge is indeed asking for 4 forecasts per month. Different data sources have different frequencies that data is reported. While some data sources do only report monthly data, other data sources are daily, and some have frequencies like every 5 days.
So why the forecast does not stop at the end of March. If we continue into April, there’ll be data leakage, right?
You are correct that once the issue dates overlap with the forecast season, some portion of the total water supply is known. However, there is still a future portion that is unknown, and having the forecast for that unknown portion is still useful for water managers.